Author: stimsinstitute

“Today, college degree is what the high school education was fifty years ago, to get a decent job. Things have changed a lot and we need to address this through a tuition free education in all public colleges and universities” says Senator Bernie Sanders, our current presidential candidate in the Democratic Party.

Some time ago I was speaking with a librarian in a local public library. She said that “in my times going to college was for the nerds”. She was referring to a time about fifty years ago. So, are we suggesting that everyone born today has to be a “nerd”? If not, what is the change in college education that is suitable for the modern economy? Without addressing this fundamental change in what we teach and what the students learn in a college, simply making the same old education from fifty years ago only tuition free – how will that change anything?

Today all trade policies including NAFTA are being derided. But they were thought of as the solution to the problems and opportunities of Globalization, twenty years ago.  Without truly understanding the forces and causes of globalization that solution implemented twenty years ago appears to be detrimental to the US workers today. We have a situation where the economy continues to grow with more low paying jobs and few good paying jobs. There is a risk in the future of a similar negative impact for the freshly minted graduates with free college education proposed today.

First and foremost, free college education has to be coupled with more well-paying jobs where these educated work force can be employed. “New Bachelor-Level Chemists Face Grim Job Market” is a quote from an article published by the American Chemical Society (ACS). The article is titled: A glut of chemists with bachelor’s degrees as well?

Over the past four decades there has been a relentless emphasis on Information Technology specifically and Digital Technology as a broad category. This reliance on IT as the major source of success has certainly paid rich dividends. It has helped this country to be at the forefront of economic success, while many other developed nations such as Japan continue to struggle. Despite the faster growth of China and other developing nations, US is still by far the largest nation in terms of its GDP. IT has an undeniable role in this success. But, the number of IT jobs to be created can never meet the full employment needs of this nation. We see this in the recent success of auto industry. Despite the claims of resurgence in auto industry, we see this success with only fewer good paying jobs.

Full employment does not automatically mean good wage jobs.

Today every one earns wages and their salaries through one of three pathways: Knowledge and its use, Information work and physical labor. Of these three physical labor work has been available in plenty until the evolution of machinery and mechanization. Now even the few labor jobs any one can do can be replaced by robots and automation. To make up for this people moved on to information work. Reading and writing skills and any ability to process data. Education acquired through high school and college education was useful here. Now for the past four decades anything a human do – read, write, speak, process data, analyze and decide – can be increasingly done using computers, IT systems and internet. This leaves a narrow pathway for employment – through “knowledge and its use”. This constant decline in good paying lower level jobs is recognized by many, but they are unwilling to face up to the reality openly and forthrightly.

Nerd may be someone with knowledge, but every nerd does not automatically become a knowledge worker with usable output of value to someone. This dichotomy needs to be recognized. Simply making higher college education tuition free is like throwing good money after bad money.

So, where will these new jobs come from?   These jobs will definitely need better academic skills in terms or reading, writing and mathematics. Beyond that the STEM education of today has to become much more practice or applications oriented. But such applications or targets can not be obvious unless the nation sets out a clear industrial policy for the future.  This does not imply that the government picks winners and losers. Instead a nation without a long term policy is like a rudderless ship.

How can we have a practice oriented education, when the teachers have no real life experience in the practice or application of what they teach? May be no one should be taken into the teaching profession unless they have had hands on know-how in their area of expertise? Perhaps  the future president – who are candidates today – can promote two plus years of support for on the job learning, for any one who is to be accepted in the teaching profession at any level – high school, community college or university?

Finally, not all those who are rich or better off are the scrooges from Wall Street, as Mr. Sanders would like us to believe. Yes, there are many in that camp and the system is rigged in their favor. All the power to Bernie and his supporters to address that issue. But, there are many who are rich or at least better off in this global economy, who have the passion and skills to discover, develop and exploit new solutions. If you are not aware of them, simply watch a few episodes of Shark Tank. These are the few with what we call as Transformational Skills.

We see education today has to be a combination of knowledge, its use and a passssion to make it relevant or useful to some one with a need. We believe this aggregate education starts with a formal education on System Thinking and Transformational Skills.

 

 

 

 

There is a recent article in the New York Times exposing the demagogic nature of Mr. Ttump’s campaign in the current Presidential campaign. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/03/opinion/campaign-stops/demagogue-for-president.html?emc=edit_th_20160303&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=18209868&_r=0

Demagogues rise to the surface and occupy the public space, when the leaders and men/women of wisdom do not address the fundamental issues.

Actions of yesterday have consequences today. We can find the parallels with this situation in Middle East and our plight in US in the Republican Primaries. The points articulated in the NYT article are the evidences and they are absolutely correct. But, what is the Cause? For that please see: https://stimsinstitute.com/2016/03/01/when-public-discourse-leaves-reasoning-and-logic-to-the-way-side/

How many people really see this cause and effect correlation between the failure of the “establishment” of both parties in the Congress and their intransigence for the past 15 years with the anger vented by their voters in the recent primaries? Had they moved on public policies such as infrastructure investments creating a few million jobs – even at the low levels of wages – the current anger and fear of the “establishment” would be diminished. It may not have opened the door for a total outsider with only promises and no plans to sustain such promises. How many can see the correlation between the relentless rant in the TV and radio by a few, fomenting anger and bigotry and racial innuendos for the past few years and their connection to the irrational views against immigrants held by the primary voters ? How many can see the evolution in Digital Technology and its unrelenting use at all cost as a source of our jobless or low wage jobs dominated recovery and the resultant rise of anger and fear for lack of opportunities in certain segments of the population in USA?

Unless the other contestants – on either party – articulate this cause and effect coherently and offer solutions to address that in a simple and logical frame work, what is this disgruntled population – a minority of total US voters and yet a majority of Trump supporters – supposed to do, other than seeing their candidate as their savior? Also is it not the same fear and anguish that drives the “young and disadvantaged” to flock to the Bernie Sanders campaign? Do they know how the Wall Street will be reined in or where will the jobs come from after the tuition free college education?

How many in the “highly uneducated” followers of Mr. Trump or the “young and disadvantaged” in the Bennie Sanders camp would even read this essay and think about the nature of the current campaigns and their approach? Is it not the free TV media that has propped up Mr. Trump and his exposure? This free TV cannot be contained any more than the access to the Social Media by ISIS to grow their popularity.

After the evolutions in Digital Technology and its un-relenting use and at all cost, we live in a world like that before and after Electricity. With the candle light there will only be a local fire that can be put out easily and a new candle lit up for light. When the electric grid fails, the whole of NY City can be plunged into darkness. We are now in this phase of larger darkness thanks to our unbridled use of Digital Technology, without any checks and balances? As a result we are data rich and poor in our analysis and conclusions. This is an evidence of task orientation and an absence of System Thinking.

The solution is not to abandon Digital Technology, any more than it is unwise to reject electricity and go back to the days of candle light. This unwise choice is also at the root of the ideas – such as shutting down the government, the return to closed borders, favoring one race over another, anger against Wall Street greed as the isolated cause of all our problems and rejection of international trade agreements as a way to save jobs in the US –  being promoted in our presidential primary discourse.

One cannot succeed in the current Skills Driven, Knowledge Economy without System Thinking and Transformational Skills. They are required to put our knowledge to use every day. This goes for the individuals as much as it applies to our nation. Let us hope that while one or few candidates may resort to manipulation and crowd pleasing statements and policies let the rest of the candidates rise up and offer concrete alternatives, educating the public and educating the nation in the process. Out of darkness comes the light!

I could not believe what I heard, as I was watching the TV show on a Cable channel. “middle income wage earners have not had an increase in wages in 15 years. You can look at the statistics from the government. They’re furious, they’re beleaguered, they’re angry. They’re looking for someone to represent them and that turns out to be Donald Trump who has tapped into this anger,” Kudlow explained.

Was it really the Larry Kudlow? Where was Larry when there has been constant obstruction from the Republicans to any investment in infrastructure in all these years? Where was Larry when everyone in the industry and the business community diligently took advantage of lower cost manufacturing in China, while eliminating well-paying jobs in the US? Does Larry truly think that it is the Chinese Government and the Mexican immigrants who are the causes of the problem and the investors and the business men in the USA have no part in it? How can he believe that one of these businessmen who took the American workers to the cleaners will be their savior going forward? Now my mind is growing numb in disbelief.

We are not political or partisan. We do not support either party or any candidate. But when public discourse leaves reasoning and logic to the way side, we are obliged to point out such folly. We have earlier pointed out that US economy can continue to grow without a related growth in higher wage jobs. https://stimsinstitute.com/2014/02/16/can-the-economy-continue-to-grow-while-creating-fewer-well-paying-jobs-the-answer-is-yes/ We have also pointed out the reasons for such jobless recovery and its impact on the growing disparity between the rich and the poor. https://stimsinstitute.com/2015/10/18/why-are-the-rich-getting-richer-and-the-poor-getting-poorer-what-can-be-done-about-that/ We have also described how the support for Mr. Trump and Mr. Sanders emanate from the same reasons, even though the language and style of these two gentlemen are the polar opposites: https://stimsinstitute.com/2015/07/24/what-is-common-between-bernie-sanders-and-donald-trump/

As long as jobs are the only source of income for the workers, they are paid through their contribution to work in three ways: Knowledge work (Professional), Information work and Physical (labor) work. This is true for any job and at any level. Of these Information work can be increasingly automated and this also enables the physical labor work to be outsourced to low cost countries. Scapegoating the Chinese Government or Mexican immigrants by the Trump campaign will not reverse this reality. It is merely preying on their anger, like a thirsty man being led for water by pointing to the mirage in a desert.

Distributing the wealth from the rich to the needy is not a political reality in the US at any time. With the Republican party dominating the Congress (in both houses) and a large Republican majority in many state governments, even fair and equitable distribution through progressive taxation is in question.  The appeal of Sander’s campaign to the young with a promise of re-distribution of wealth is hence rooted in their enthusiasm for change more than it is rooted in reality.

The gradual elimination of information work and physical labor as human centered activities is a development over the past four decades. Evolution in Digital Technology in broad terms and Information Technology in particular is their cause. It is like life before electricity and life after. There is nothing one can do about this shifting nature of jobs and employment, by merely clinging on to the old paradigms and economic tools.

There was limited room to accommodate the shifting of wage earning capacity. As factory labor jobs became scarce, people took to IT jobs. As they become scarce we need new ways for people to work and earn their wages. Government investment in infrastructure projects is one way forward. This will create labor work to some extent. This is the proven path from the Eisenhower days. Failure for such large investments and their negative impact should be placed squarely on the US Congress and its inaction. It has resisted any large scale infrastructure investments in every step for the past decade. This role of the Congress is like those who are happy to cut their face in spite of their nose! Can Mr. Trump or Larry Kudlow reverse this inaction in congress? Can Mr. Trump claim to have a mandate for such investments? Will the congress heed to such mandate any more than their obstruction to Mr. Obama’s plans? It will require opening of their purse by the rich – friends of Mr. Ludlow – through a more progressive tax plan. It is not clear how Mr. Trump will accomplish that any more than Mr. Obama could with an intransigent congress?

Indeed large growth in employment through infrastructure investment has been a major source of economic growth in countries like China. These investments in airports, roads, bridges and power plants in China by the Chinese Government have also been a source of “subsidy” for business men like Mr. Trump, who make their products cheaper there for sale in the USA. This economic reality cannot be swept under the rug in the heated rhetoric now in vogue in the presidential debates.

Higher education has been used as a tool for moving away from the diminishing factory labor jobs – rust belt jobs – into belter paying information work on the East and West coast. As this transition seems to have reached its limits we have more people with college degrees and large student loans. Mr. Sanders can wipe out their debt burden, but what are they supposed to do after that? Where will the new jobs come from?

Reducing college debt by having the beneficiaries re-pay that through service work of value to the nation is a temporary measure. That still leaves several issues for an economy with limited demand for human capital. We call this as the Binary Economy, which by definition has the relentless focus on eliminating whatever we call as the “middle”, which is composed of human centered work focused on information and physical labor.  This Binary Economy is propelled by unrelenting development and deployments of the tools of IT and in a broader sense the Digital Technology. The Genie is out of the bottle. There is no way to reverse that. No amount of demagoguery against the Chinese, Mexicans, immigrants or Muslim will solve this problem. No amount of anger directed against the Wall Street and its greed and the crony capitalism will address this fundamental driving force. But the wise minds must find the answers before the anger fueled by Mr. Trump becomes a global anger. That will be far worse than the global terrorism we are forced to confront today.

We are a nation where individuals take action long before the actions of the government. To those who believe in self-help we suggest a strong dose of education on System Thinking and Transformational Skills.