View Points – Page 2 – STIMS Institute

What should you do when the thought leaders are so wrong?

Following is a quote from the recent Meet The Press show on NBC. http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/nicholas-fondacaro/2016/09/11/meet-press-republican-party-becoming-party-less-educated

On the show, Brooks warned of “chasms that open up socially” between the well-educated and the poorly-educated, and how you can measure other social aspects with that information. He also shared his worry about what it could mean for an educationally divided country:

And so my question and this is really a serious worry; suppose one party becomes the party of less college and who feel head winds, and that would be the Republican Party, I think. And suppose another party becomes the party of the tail winds because they’ve got college degrees, and that would be the Democratic Party. Suppose our partisan realignment over laps with a class alignment and that to me is extremely problematic for what it says about what’s going to happen.

His fellow panelist Tom Brokaw concurred with this prediction saying that it goes against all preconceived notions the media had about Republicans.

And also this is a profound shift because the Republicans are representing those who don’t have a college education,” Brokaw explained, “We’ve all grown up with Republicans who are at the high end of the income scale and are the elitists in American life. So this has been turned upside down.

Both David Brooks and Tom Brokaw are well respected national thought leaders. No one can question their wisdom, experience or acumen. Yet in their above comments one has to believe that they are merely expressing their opinions rather than reasoned factual conclusions (which we expect from these thought leaders).

It is true that a large segment of the population feel the head winds. This is due to the massive standardization and de-skilling of work of any kind and in any sector. This includes manufacturing, accounting, medicine, not to speak of Walmart and McDonald work. This has nothing to do with college degrees. It has everything to do with aptitude, a willingness to put in hard work with our supervision and follow-the-herd mind set. For this skill and work, the salaries are rushing close to the minimum wages. So, even after two jobs in a day, one can not still take care of a family.

In the above scenario college degrees are used today merely as a screening tool as evidence of diligence and ability to follow the rules. If you have these skills you don’t need a college degree.

Large cross section of people who fall in this category are both Democrats and Republicans. Simply because Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton promote ideas on free or affordable college education, those who need such help are not merely Democrats.

Since over 80% of what one needs to know as information (falsely attributed as knowledge) is already available through internet (Google, search engines and social media) the need today is not college education, but a job or solution that needs your services. The smart people are those who can find such opportunities and they can get attached to them. We call them as Transformational Skilled workers. Hillary Clinton has been promoting this kind of skill development through Community Colleges and Vocational Technical Schools.

Those with a blend of academic education (not necessarily a four year college degree), attached to real world needs and opportunities, but with an unending zeal (Transformational) to identify, develop and deliver a stream of new solutions are the few with the tail winds at their back in the new Binary Economy. These few are not Democrats or Republicans. They are both.

Unfortunately the current POTUS election is not a contest for identifying these head winds and tail winds. Instead it is a contest between a demagogue and opportunist (who has already benefited from the tail winds at the expense of many) and a life long Methodist (who believes in social good for as many as she can help).

Also the tail winds favor a few at the expense of the many. This is seen as the rise of the 1% vs. the 99% who suffer the pains of the head winds. Protection for the many against the head winds may need social programs and Government involvement – which would be the Democrat’s preference. Instead people may be left to fend for themselves, while Government steps out of the way – which would be the Republican’s preference. Unfortunately these are not the subjects of debate in the current election cycle, since one candidate (Hillary) has policy proposals, while the other candidate (Donald Trump) has nothing but lot of words with little in terms of policy alternatives.

Tail winds can be taken advantage of by individuals to lift their own boats. This is the preference by Republicans (through their preference for tax cuts for the rich). Benefit of the tail winds can be used by sharing for larger common good (through tax increase for the rich). This is preferred by the Democrats. This may be the only policy difference one can see between the two parties.

Some of those who benefit from the tail winds are clearly noted in the media. The many “Pundits” who offer constant opinions on news, TV and social media are not necessarily the highly educated – with reasoning and logic as their core values – but instead are those who have a drive and will to appear in as many media outlets as they possibly can and repeat or regurgitate what is already known over and over again. We can only hope that scholars and thought leaders like David Brooks, and Tom Brokaw will not fall into that category of media opportunists who express their opinions as facts.

How to bring back the jobs that are “never coming back”?

The conventions are over and the 2016 POTUS election is now in the final stretch. Stagnant wages and increasing concentration of the wealth will continue to be the case irrespective of who wins the race and reached the White House. This is the sad reality as reflected in the article titled “What to do about jobs that are never coming back” in the latest issue of TIME magazine (August 1, 2016 – Page23):

“Rapidly emerging economic order in which automation and ever smarter artificial intelligence will make even cheap foreign labor obsolete and give rise to a society that will be highly productive – except at creating new jobs. Today’s persistently stagnant wages and rageful populism are early signs of the trouble this could generate”

Here are a few thoughts for both the Republicans as well as Democrats. Independents have to be concerned about this as well.

We have been concerned about this development for over three decades. Our two books titled:

address this development and also how individuals can cope with the same. Please see the links below for details:

Donald Trump is smart; Is America smarter?

President Obama gets it; then what?

In summary:

“At a time when computers can do everything (read, write, speak, calculate, analyze, decide and direct), professionals and companies have to do something more! This requires System Thinking and Transformational Skills”
At a time when the products and services of any company have to serve one of two extremes – (a)High Volume and Lowest Cost or (b) High Value and Unique Capability – with no survival in the middle, companies and enterprises need to adapt System Thinking and Transformational Skills to survive and succeed in this Binary Economy

– Dr. K. (Subbu) Subramanian, President

But our purpose of writing this blog is larger than the issue of individual coping skills in this emerging new economic order.

While “Manufacturing” will continue to be a source of economic growth and employment, clearly the employment opportunities through manufacturing WILL NOT be as large as needed to address the larger populations and their needs. This will have serious impact for developed nations and developing nations alike:

For countries like India it will require economic policies that go beyond mere reliance on Manufacturing sector or “Make in India” as the sole growth engine for the future.

The Western or developed economies and industrial developments have largely been based on a simple model: “The economic success of an individual is judged by how large (limitless) one can consume energy”! – The richer you are, you own and enjoy bigger house, bigger planes, more cars, boats, ….” These are also countries with small population size. Their emphasis on manufacturing are also related to products and services that support such energy intensive needs.

Today developing nations – India, China, …- seem to be copying the same models (with more reliance on cars, planes, highways, airports, ….). In fact copying this energy intensive opulence can be seen when the rich conduct their family weddings on board the airplanes! Investments in support of the above model benefits a very small fraction of the population – as one can expect – at the expense of the unmet needs for the larger population in the developing nations as well as the developed nations.

Unfortunately consultants and world economic planners view every growth from this lens of energy consumption intensive opulence. If the highways and airports are not in par with the “developed” nations then such countries are deemed under-developed! Add this unbridled copying of the energy intensive economic opulence model together with the relentless role of IT – Digital technology in a broad sense – to replace any and all human intensive work which leads us to the conclusion as quoted above from the TIME Magazine article ” Rapidly emerging economic order in which automation and ever smarter artificial intelligence will make even cheap foreign labor obsolete and give rise to a society that will be highly productive – except at creating new jobs.”

One can see the writing on the wall ! Then what is the way out?

In a “Global Economy” the problems of any one has to be come the problems of all. USA as a world leader has to assume responsibilities for the global problems: World wide need for food, shelter, drinking water, energy efficiency, ecology, etc. Attempts to solve these problems of all also provide plenty of opportunities for high wage jobs and employment for highly skilled professionals.

These jobs created by the government will stay within the shore and create better employment in USA. Their outcomes when globalized will benefit every one and more economic opportunities for the private sector. Take for instance the GPS, developed with federal funding. It is now used by every one across the globe. Hence here are our suggestions:

Invest in areas to (a) educate and (b) employ a large number of skilled professionals, who are also educated and trained on System Thinking with Transformational Skills.

Start thinking of “Technology” not limited to IT. This is not the the current or prevailing notion.

Start thinking of all Physical Technologies as means to solve a wide variety of problems and meet a broad range of needs of the global population. This would be like investing through NASA, NIH, Transportation, Space, etc. but many times over!

These programs must be targeted not only for the immediate needs of the nation, but for the larger needs of the globe as a whole: Drinking water, food, home and shelter, better climate, low cost energy, better use of natural resources, better use of the ocean and the outer space, renewable energy, etc. Pollution in China need not be a crisis for China alone! Lack of adequate food distribution and hence hunger need not be India’s problem alone!

Global leadership requires ownership of global needs!

Where does the money for this come from? The unbridled use across the globe of developments inside of USA based on Physical Technology has given rise to unlimited wealth for investors who exploit the use of such developments across the globe, enabled by IT applications and their capabilities. These are the “new riches” of Globalization today that go with out being taxed.

GOP and the conservatives do not wish to tax the hard earned income of individuals. We agree with that. But the “new riches” – the non-wage income generated by investors – can not fall in the same category of income as that of the wage earners and their reward for their hard work.

Democrats believe that workers do not get living wages and the minimum wages have to go up. We agree with that as well. But beyond that individual income has to come from individual efforts and not government support. As an example we agree that “Debt free education” is better than “Tuition free education”. Beyond that Government has an unique role to create New Jobs for skilled workers. These can be pursued as follows:

Investment for new high skill jobs that has to come from the federal government, since federal jobs can be protected and preserved to remain within the shores. Like the peace core that created good-will across the globe, we need Professional Core of high wage workers that can work in the USA and create a stream of new solutions based on a wide variety of technologies (beyond IT) for the betterment of the human kind across the globe as well as for a better planet tomorrow.

To this end Non-Wage income earners can contribute through higher taxes and the government can target this additional income for creating such high wage jobs.

The workers in these high wage jobs through their system thinking and Transformational skills have to be truly mindful of the outcome of their work and not become government employed bureaucrats merely pushing papers and administering programs, as they are perceived to be in the current work force.

The Men of America

Triangle of Skills

The article titled Election 2016: The men America has left behind, in the CNN – Election 2016: Your money, your vote section is misleading on many ways.

In the first place, America did not leave behind any one. America as a nation is made up of people, who work in the country and get paid for AND the business men who run the companies and employ these workers. So, the article should be titled: The men that American businesses have left behind.

America is not a socialistic or communist country where everyone gets taken care of by “America” (i.e.) the US government and hence the POTUS and the US Congress. It is a Democracy – of the people, by the people and for the people. Hence the more appropriate title may be: The men of America who let themselves to be left behind. These American men were happy to be paid good wages as long as they had a job where they could use their physical labor in the factory floor. This is very well illustrated in the GE commercial: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xGoBlI_fdg These skills – the muscle power – has always been available everywhere across the globe. Being born or living in the US does not guarantee the use or need for these skills. These men always used their brawn, but never used their innate skills to think and analyze what is happening around them. They let business men like Donald Trump take their jobs across the globe. Now they are being conned by the same business leader to think that it is everybody else’s fault, except theirs. The focus is on men only because there were more men than women using their brawn in our factory floors. But, the issues and being conned are the same for the women as well as the men of America. Also these men were idle or willing to let the state governments weaken the unions and their bargaining power, while the crony capitalism was also growing. Democracy does not succeed if the voters do not exercise their vote or uneducated on policies that affect them or swayed by cable news and radio talk shows and reality TV.

The title could also be The Men of America left behind by “Technology”. It is sad but true that everyone has been conned to accept that the word “Technology” stands for Digital Technology or IT. This technology is useful to take the power of information away from many people into the hands of a few. This has dramatically reduced the number of white collar jobs. This impact has been largest in the US first, but it is sweeping its impact across the globe. With the automation of information the men of muscle power could also be replaced by lower cost labor from Mexico, China, … all padding the pockets of business men like Donald Trump, with more profit. I

The title could also be The Men of America left behind by intellectuals and policy makers across the globe. The word Technology stands for integrated use of Science, Engineering and Managnment in any discipline. While America continues to make progress in a few other technology areas besides IT, the time and investments needed in many more technologies – for alternative fuels, clean air and water, controlling the global warming, space exploration, under water exploration, eradicating hunger, thirst and poverty across the globe, peace through prosperity in Middle East, …. – is far less than the jobs being taken away by the relentless use of IT in the current work place.

The title could also be The Men of America being misled by Donald Trump. No matter how much Mr. Trump promises, he cannot make America great again, by forcing US businesses to “make” things in America. It is only a matter of time that some manufacturing jobs will be returning to US due to natural economic forces (with or without Mr. Trump). But, they will not be for these men of muscle power. They will be for the few who with skills to work in an automated factory floor with robots and AGVs and networked machines and systems.

The title could also be The Men of America lured by cheap products at Walmart. While the US business men were attracted and even addicted to low cost labor, the US population has been equally attracted to lower cost items – made in China – available in places like Walmart. No one gets anything for nothing. Lower cost products at Walmart also mean lower cost labor from China and Mexico and lower cost of white collar labor every where.

May be the title can also be The Men of America who think college education is their savior. This is the myth propagated by the media and fueled by free college for all by Mr. Bernie Sanders. College education, even if it is free may not be the answer for a large majority of American workers. Yes, it is a definite pathway but only for a few.

May be the tile could be Men of America who are not learning some skills – to be a solution provider – for locally accessible jobs. Following quote from the same CNN Money article is relevant here:

Meanwhile, unlike some of his fellow factory workers, Cavins is determined to get a good job. He’s betting that a yearlong course in industrial maintenance will give him the skills needed to work in heating and cooling services, which his online searches found can start at $40,000 a year. He’s willing to leave Scioto County and work anywhere … in a hospital, factory, school or water supply facility, for instance. One day, he’d like to start his own business. …… The program, offered at Scioto County Career Technical Center, costs nearly $10,000 and has placed 95% of its graduates over the past two years in jobs that typically earn between $31,000 and $40,000 annually. To finance it, Cavins received a federal Pell Grant for $5,900 and took out two loans. …. “I didn’t think I’d get anywhere without learning a trade,” said Cavins, who graduates in September. “I want to give my family better than what I had. I want to try to break the cycle and not live on disability.”

May be the title could be: Men of America that the country and US policies left behind, due to crony capitalism, Republican obstruction in the Congress for infra-structure investment and false hope on higher education at the expense of free or affordable training for employable skills development. Perhaps for the time left before the November election, the presidential candidates can propose and develop support for such training. Community Colleges in collaboration with local companies and employers can offer such training. The companies who collaborate on such training can be given tax subsidies as their incentive? Free community college education proposed by the POTUS can be for such targeted training and not for open ended education?

For more details on how these men – working middle class – were left behind, please read: The System Approach – A strategy to survive and succeed in the global economy ;

Thriving in the 21st Century Economy – Transformational skills for technical professionals.

Warning against AI and job loss: What can be done about that?

“Scientists warn AI means job losses in every profession” is the headline for an article in the Financial Times dated Feb. 15, 2016. This page 1 article is authored by Clive Cookson. The copy of the article can be seen at the end of this post.

Following are a few quotes from this article: Intelligent machines would soon replace people in all sectors of the economy, computer scientists told a meeting of the American Association for Advancement of Science in Washington at the week end. ……….. “We are approaching the time when machines will be able to outperform humans at almost any task”, according to the computer science professor Moshe Vardi from Rice University, Texas. ”Society needs to confront this question before it is upon us …..” Professor Selman from Cornell University has helped to draft an open letter last year from the Future of Life Institute, Cambridge, MA. to policy makers urging them to explore the risks associated with increasingly intelligent machines.

While the above caution and appeal for better public policies are valid and timely, it is perplexing to see that such caution is raised only against a future possibility imposed on us by self-driving cars, robotics and Artificial Intelligence. We believe that individuals and enterprises cannot sit and wait till some policies are debated and implemented to address the unabated role of DT (and its formulations such as AI and Robotics and driver-less cars, etc.) in eliminating human centered work. Individuals need to gain academic knowledge in combination with their applications know-how (called sector or domain specific knowledge), together with a set of skills for “System Thinking and Transformational Skills”.

Knowledge Integration

We call this collective know-how and its application as the Knowledge Integration. Such KI capability is the essential education at all levels. The practice of KI will be the competitive weapon for workers and their employers for the foreseeable future.

For education on System Thinking and Transformational skills and for projects to implement them for competitiveness in the global economy https://stimsinstitute.com/contact-us/

Our detailed views on this topic can be seen at: Warning against job loss

AI and employment

Welders and philosophers – a case for skill needed for Developing Common Language

In the fourth Republican debate Senator Rubio stated, “Welders make more money than philosophers,” “We need more welders and less philosophers.”

One can fully appreciate the possible resurgence of the need for welders, as the manufacturing sector shows some signs of life after decades of being decimated under the banner of globalization. Yes, if you are a hands on welder there are some good jobs available in the range of $35,000 to $50,000/year. Before every one rushes to send their children for welding schools, let us be sure that they are also trained on basics of engineering, business economics and IT applications. Otherwise the welders of today will be left behind in the next few years as Robotics get a greater and stronger foot hold in our manufacturing not long from now.

In every discipline of study one is awarded the highest degree (i.e.) Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D). It is very logical to find – and indeed there are many – Doctor of Philosophy in welding as well. Any Ph.D in welding capable of integrating and implementing new solutions is a hot commodity for employment today. Indeed we need such results oriented Ph.D in every field. At any time the demand for such highly educated and qualified people will be far fewer than welders with basic trade school education and training. But their income will always be higher than the welders in the shop floor.

Why is it that Mr. Rubio suggests that we need more welders and not philosophers? Such thought and language comes from a limited knowledge of the words and their repeated use. The word Philosophy is an in-depth study of any subject. Of course in-depth study of life in general is commonly referred to as “Philosophy”. But every graduate in philosophy major is not a Philosopher any more than any one holding a welding gun is a welder!

Mr. Rubio’s comment also has another ramification as well. There is a general misconception that education in a hot field and income are directly correlated and hence once should get educated in specific areas where opportunity presents itself. This has been the case for the 20^th century education. Students flocked to Automobile engineering, Textile engineering, Nuclear engineering, Chemical engineering, Polymer engineering, etc. as each industry grew and shrunk well within the confines of the US shores. With the globalization such sector specific education may still be a need, but every worker needs also to be a system thinker and solution provider first. Absent such transformational skills no amount of education will be a sustainable competitive advantage for the workers at any level. These considerations and in-depth analysis leading to meaningful solutions of impact for average workers will require every presidential candidate to be a bit more philosophic in their reflection, thinking and answers. May be we don’t need more philosophy graduates compared to the number of welders required. But for certain we need every presidential candidate be required to take a crash course in philosophy and the reflection and analytical thinking such education brings.

This episode also points to another important issue we face in the economy and the society today. Words and their true meaning are lost, when they are misused. Thanks to the advent of IT, this abuse spreads quickly and across the globe at the speed of electrons. Then with very little thought such terms and their erroneous meaning become the accepted norm! Welding is a technical skill and philosophy is a thought process. A welder could also be a philosopher. To be grounded on the true meaning of the word requires an ability to step back and look at the big picture and a special skill to “Develop a common language”. We call this as the capacity for System Thinking and Transformational Skills.

Few other examples where we need the above skills and the common language are:

Technology (it is not IT or Digital Technology alone as presumed in many conversations),
Service Economy is distinct from Industrial Economy (Every economy – industrial, service, high-tech., brick and Mortar, etc. – is rooted in Products (source of revenue), Process (Means to an end) and Application/USE (where the value of the product is perceived hence generating revenue))
Globalization is the cause of many of our problems (It is an outcome and not a cause; pervasive and indiscriminate use of IT applications is the cause))
Globalization will lift all boats (Globalization as the result of indiscriminate use of IT to improve operating costs and re-distribute employment across the globe is like a shrinking vessel and can not lift all boats; Unless IT applications together with human skills are also used to create new products, markets and better way of living for all, Globalization as it exists can not lift all the boats)