What does Brexit mean for you?

Slide1What does Brexit mean for you? The answer depends on who “you” are? The exit of UK from the European Union is reported as a large calamitous event. One may wonder why there is such a great concern now for this internal decision by the citizens of UK?  After all companies routinely make decisions to   dissolve their mergers with other companies. Not all such decisions are wise or well thought out. But the owners of such companies – the share holders have the right to do so. No one would question their right. In a democracy the citizens are the owners of their country. Hence the decision by the British citizens is nobody’s concern except their own.

The above would be very logical as long as everything can be looked at only through the lens of owners and their rights. But nations are not mere business entities. At the same time we must also note that companies are not citizens, despite the decision by the SCOTUS. One must acknowledge that SCOTUS did not declare corporations as citizens in all aspects including the human and emotional aspects of citizens.

The decision by the Brits to exit the EU is the reflection of the pain and anger of those who have been left out or left to fall down in their economic standards and opportunities for the past four decades. We have described in great detail that Globalization is not the cause but a mere effect of indiscriminate deployment of Digital Technology to merely cut costs in all areas of economic activity.

Learn to swim against the tide of Binary Economy

Do Americans really miss the unions?

Can the economy continue to grow while creating fewer well paying jobs? – the answer is “YES”.

Opportunities that should not be lost in the current Presidential Election Cycle?

This has dramatically affected workers largely dependent on Information work directly.  This has also indirectly affected physical labor in high wage nations by de-localizing their work to low wage economies.  The combined effect is the collapse of the middle class in developed nations. These affected populations express their anger and anguish in different ways. In US these are the angry supporters for Donald Trump and the relatively reflective supporters of Bernie sanders. The later also include naive  students who believe in “free” college, with out asking where will be their jobs after they graduate?  In UK it is the disgruntled middle class who voted for the Brexit in a narrow margin over those who wanted to continue to be part of the EU.

Irrespective of who “You” are, the present form of Globalization is unsustainable.  There can not be one rule for the investors to use their money to make more money across the globe with out regard for the impact of their decisions on local economy, while there is a different rule for workers whose rewards, taxes and employment opportunities are limited to the confines of their national boundaries. This is not a problem for the UN to resolve!  Workers can not work across the globe and park their profits overseas without paying due local taxes, but the corporations can and do. Whose responsibility is it to bring about an economic equity between the workers and the investors across the globe and independent of national economic models (such as capitalism, socialism, communism, etc.)? These questions go unaddressed and it has perpetuated over the past four decades, which is the problem. Hopefully exposing this weakness and inability of economists and policy makers to address this may be what Brexit means for you?

Don’t count on Mfg. to create large number of future jobs.

According to the house Democrat’s “Our Agenda”, when more products are made in America, there will be greater opportunity for our people to Make it in America”. This implies more jobs through the growing mfg. sector.

Donald Trump claims on the campaign trail that he will bring back mfg. to USA and along with it lots and lots of jobs.

These claims for large employment and more number of jobs through manufacturing sector are at odds with what is happening in the real world.

The role and impact of labor cost is gradually declining in most manufacturing activities. With the rapidly declining cost for information processing and increasing competencies through programmable automation (robots, CNC, AGV, drones, etc.) the need for human labor in manufacturing sector is substantially lower today than any time before. Hence large segments of manufacturing may return to US on their own accord. But it is unlikely that they will bring back the large number of jobs lost in the manufacturing sector.

Enabled by IT (Digital Technology in a broader context) we see a constant elimination of human labor for information work. Aided by DT (Programmable automation) robots will also replace large need for human workers. Both of them do not bode well for large scale employment through manufacturing sector. As evidence please see the attached:
Meaningful impact in national mfg. strategy and employment policies are beyond the scope of individual professionals. Of course they can voice their views and shape the dialogue through their participation in national dialogue and through professional societies. Beyond that one should take hold of their individual careers through a set of skills acquired through education, application /training /experience and Transformational skills.
Triangle of Skills
For details please see:

Donald Trump is smart; Is America smarter?

Wage and non-wage income

The rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, the two outsiders who are challenging the “establishment” should not come as a surprise to any one! After all we live in a world where multi billion dollar enterprises (Apple, Amazon, Google,….) and all other Digital Technology enabled giants have dwarfed the role and attention away traditional giants such as GE, P&W, Timken, GM, Ford, etc. In fact these companies are considered as “established”, “industrial”and “brick and mortar” companies, while the Silicon Valley giants are lauded as the “hi-tech” companies.

Yes, it is the period for the glory for those who leverage IT (Digital Technology in a broader sense) in unique ways and make an enormous impact. Donald Trump has exploited the cable news – a product of Digital Technology  – and access to free press in unique ways for his success as of now. His success in public arena merely mirrors the success of the few IT giants in the industry, bur only in terms of their ability to deploy Digital Tools. The anger and divisiveness of Donald Trump campaign are sad and do not deserve any analysis or comparison.

The stagnant wages, low income, lack of growth opportunities, fear of terrorism, need for immigration reform have all been issues brewing over the past four decades. This is also the period of relentless use of Digital Technology which creates large opportunities for the few at the expense of economic disadvantage for the many and the hollowing out of the middle. These are issues that require sustained economic planning and re-thinking of priorities we as a nation can subscribe to. They can not be achieved merely through slogans of “Make America great again”.

Over the past four decades work as we know of it has changed. Rewards of the investors and the reward for the rest are no longer two sides of the same coin. Investors can continue to make huge rewards by gradually and constantly eliminating the need for human involvement (i.e.) wage earning workers.

Four layers

In this climate every US Citizen and resident must look for skills to (a) identify new opportunities, (b) develop them into solutions, (c) implement them and (d) garner the benefits as a result. Of these (a) and (d) belonged to the investors; (b) and (c) belonged to the workers – the two sides of the coin. Now all four of these tasks have to be carried out as an integral effort. We call the skills for this as Transformational Skills. 

Donald Trump is smart in identifying the opportunity (i.e) a disaffected population can be excited through anger and bigotry; this opportunity can be developed into a solution for his political ambitions. Now he is in the phase of implementing his solution through the general election.

The question is this: Is America smarter than Donald Trump?  Can the American population see the true nature of the Binary Economy at work? Can they see the opportunities in the Binary Economy which requires every one to become Transformational? Can they demand economic reforms, educational reform and work force training that  moves the population away from task orientation (skills for success on one side of the coin only) into a system oriented solution providers (take hold of the coin as a whole)?

America has less than six months left to answer this question: Is America smarter than Donald Trump?

 

Do Americans really miss the unions?

Slide2

Every wage earner contributes to three kinds of wage earning effort: Knowledge and its use (A); Information work (B) and Physical Labor (C).

Labor Productivity as judged by the employer = A / (A + B + C)

There are claims that the current low wage economic climate in US is a refection of poor US education, need for higher college degrees, weak unions, …. These traditional arguments miss a couple of fundamental issues. They are:

  1. The role of IT (and broadly Digital Technology) in eliminating the need for human centered activities (labor);
  2. Failure of the nations to invest heavily in new technologies – beyond DT
  3.  Meaningful programs to convert them into new economic activities and jobs;
  4. Failure of students, educators, universities and parents to point out the need for a three legged balanced education (which will be the only way to find high wage jobs in the new Binary Economy).

Weakness in all of the four points are leading to a low or stagnant wage labor, with a collapsing middle class.

We address this fourth point in this essay as it pertains to the role of strong/weak labor unions. When the labor is strong in terms of its direct and identifiable contribution to the GDP, then unions will find their role and strength. It is like blaming the security guard in a bank, when there is no money left in the vault! The money is not stolen, but it has been used up and not replenished.

Following is a quote from a recent NYT article.

More than 151 million Americans count themselves employed, a number that has risen sharply in the last few years. The question is this: What are they doing all day? Because whatever it is, it barely seems to be registering in economic output. The number of hours Americans worked rose 1.9 percent in the year ended in March. New data released Thursday showed that gross domestic production the first quarter was up 1.9 percent over the previous year. Despite constant advances in software, equipment and management practices to try to make corporate America more efficient, actual economic output is merely moving in lock step with the number of hours people put in, rather than rising as it has throughout modern history.

Productivity is one of the most important yet least understood areas of economics. Over long periods, it is the only pathway toward higher levels of prosperity; the reason an American worker makes much more today than a century ago is that each hour of labor produces much more in goods and services. 

In our opinion this confusion exists because of the long held conventional views on labor productivity.

There is a traditional view that everything that is done to increase the productivity in one nation has to reflect in the GDP of that nation. If this were true that the rate of growth in GDP in countries like India and China will reflect a far larger labor productivity in these countries  than that in USA.

According to a report from Oxford.  ” the basis of U.S. manufacturing’s continued strong competitive position is increasing productivity. The productivity of U.S. manufacturers has risen by 40% since 2003, outpacing competitors such as Germany (23%), the UK (30%), and Mexico (18%). While productivity of manufacturers in China and India has more than doubled over the same period, the report notes, U.S. manufacturers in 2016 are still nine times as productive per employee than manufacturers in China”

Why is this dichotomy?

Today labor productivity – PE Score – can be measured as the value added effort by the employee / Total Effort. Value addition is achieved through the skills of the work force to create “New Solutions”. Value addition can also be through their workers in terms of their contribution to pass along information or pick and place or move things (Physical labor). This later kind of labor activity which is disappearing is illustrated well in the GE Commercial.  

New Solutions can be created and implemented  using labor and the productivity here will be much higher. This can be judged by the output / employee in companies like Apple, Google, Tesla, Space X. The labor productivity in manufacturers in USA are much higher (as noted above) because of the very low content of information work and physical effort (replaced by IT systems and automation) per employee.

What does this mean in terms of graduates and their earning potential? Simply graduating from colleges and looking for new jobs is not enough. They need a collection of three sets of knowledge: Academic education from the college, application oriented experience or training and Transformational Skills to identify, develop and implement New Solutions.

For details Contact us.